diff --git a/esphome/components/esphome/ota/ota_esphome.cpp b/esphome/components/esphome/ota/ota_esphome.cpp
index 566d2f5ef0..4109fe6cf1 100644
--- a/esphome/components/esphome/ota/ota_esphome.cpp
+++ b/esphome/components/esphome/ota/ota_esphome.cpp
@@ -69,6 +69,7 @@ void ESPHomeOTAComponent::setup() {
   // Register for socket wake notifications. loop() disables itself on its first
   // idle tick — no need to disable_loop() here explicitly.
   App.set_ota_wake_component(this);
+  ESP_LOGD(TAG, "setup complete: registered wake component, listener fd ready");
 }
 
 void ESPHomeOTAComponent::dump_config() {
@@ -103,7 +104,12 @@ void ESPHomeOTAComponent::loop() {
   //
   // Note: No need to check server_ for null — setup() marks the component failed
   // if server_ creation fails.
-  if (this->client_ == nullptr && !this->server_->ready()) {
+  // DEBUG: trace every loop tick while we investigate a wake/accept race.
+  const uint32_t wake_count = App.ota_wake_count_debug();
+  const bool ready = this->server_->ready();
+  ESP_LOGD(TAG, "loop tick: client=%p ready=%d wakes=%u", (void *) this->client_.get(), ready, wake_count);
+  if (this->client_ == nullptr && !ready) {
+    ESP_LOGD(TAG, "loop tick: idle, disabling");
     this->disable_loop();
     return;
   }
@@ -126,9 +132,13 @@ void ESPHomeOTAComponent::handle_handshake_() {
     socklen_t addr_len = sizeof(source_addr);
     int enable = 1;
 
+    ESP_LOGD(TAG, "handle_handshake_: attempting accept");
     this->client_ = this->server_->accept_loop_monitored((struct sockaddr *) &source_addr, &addr_len);
-    if (this->client_ == nullptr)
+    if (this->client_ == nullptr) {
+      ESP_LOGD(TAG, "handle_handshake_: accept returned null (would-block)");
       return;
+    }
+    ESP_LOGD(TAG, "handle_handshake_: accept ok, client=%p", (void *) this->client_.get());
     int err = this->client_->setsockopt(IPPROTO_TCP, TCP_NODELAY, &enable, sizeof(int));
     if (err != 0) {
       this->log_socket_error_(LOG_STR("nodelay"));
diff --git a/esphome/core/application.h b/esphome/core/application.h
index 67ef1d666f..185991a37a 100644
--- a/esphome/core/application.h
+++ b/esphome/core/application.h
@@ -572,11 +572,15 @@ class Application {
   /// Not IRAM_ATTR: all callers run in task / user-IRQ context, not a real ISR,
   /// and the LwIP event callbacks that invoke this are not IRAM-resident either.
   void wake_ota_component_any_context() {
+    this->ota_wake_count_debug_++;
     if (this->ota_wake_component_ != nullptr) {
       this->ota_wake_component_->pending_enable_loop_ = true;
       this->has_pending_enable_loop_requests_ = true;
     }
   }
+  /// DEBUG: monotonically increasing count of wake calls, regardless of whether
+  /// ota_wake_component_ was set. Read from OTA::loop() to verify the hook fires.
+  uint32_t ota_wake_count_debug() const { return this->ota_wake_count_debug_; }
 #endif
 
  protected:
@@ -655,7 +659,8 @@ class Application {
   // Pointer-sized members first
   Component *current_component_{nullptr};
 #ifdef USE_OTA
-  Component *ota_wake_component_{nullptr};  // Set by ESPHomeOTAComponent to receive socket-wake notifications
+  Component *ota_wake_component_{nullptr};     // Set by ESPHomeOTAComponent to receive socket-wake notifications
+  volatile uint32_t ota_wake_count_debug_{0};  // DEBUG: incremented by wake_ota_component_any_context
 #endif
 
   // std::vector (3 pointers each: begin, end, capacity)