diff --git a/esphome/components/esp32_ble_client/ble_client_base.cpp b/esphome/components/esp32_ble_client/ble_client_base.cpp
index 68fccac288..dde47b0c5e 100644
--- a/esphome/components/esp32_ble_client/ble_client_base.cpp
+++ b/esphome/components/esp32_ble_client/ble_client_base.cpp
@@ -150,6 +150,8 @@ void BLEClientBase::connect() {
   // A registration whose event never arrived must not block this connection's release.
   this->services_released_ = false;
   this->pending_notify_regs_ = 0;
+  // A CONNECT_EVT seen while idle can leave the id of a link this attempt does not own.
+  this->conn_id_ = UNSET_CONN_ID;
   // Enable loop for state processing
   this->enable_loop();
   // Immediately transition to CONNECTING to prevent duplicate connection attempts
@@ -350,7 +352,6 @@ bool BLEClientBase::gattc_event_handler(esp_gattc_cb_event_t event, esp_gatt_if_
       if (!this->check_addr(param->open.remote_bda))
         return false;
       this->log_gattc_lifecycle_event_("OPEN");
-      // conn_id was already set in ESP_GATTC_CONNECT_EVT
       this->service_count_ = 0;
 
       // ESP-IDF's BLE stack may send ESP_GATTC_OPEN_EVT after esp_ble_gattc_open() returns an
@@ -362,19 +363,24 @@ bool BLEClientBase::gattc_event_handler(esp_gattc_cb_event_t event, esp_gatt_if_
         break;
       }
 
-      if (this->state() != espbt::ClientState::CONNECTING) {
-        // This should not happen but lets log it in case it does
-        // because it means we have a bad assumption about how the
-        // ESP BT stack works.
+      const bool open_failed = param->open.status != ESP_GATT_OK && param->open.status != ESP_GATT_ALREADY_OPEN;
+      // Bluedroid reports a failed open as DISCONNECT_EVT then a failing OPEN_EVT, with no CONNECT_EVT,
+      // so DISCONNECTING with no id is expected for a failure. Anything else means a bad assumption
+      // about how the ESP BT stack works, so log it.
+      const bool expected_failure =
+          open_failed && this->state() == espbt::ClientState::DISCONNECTING && this->conn_id_ == UNSET_CONN_ID;
+      if (this->state() != espbt::ClientState::CONNECTING && !expected_failure) {
         ESP_LOGE(TAG, "[%d] [%s] ESP_GATTC_OPEN_EVT in %s state (status=%d)", this->connection_index_,
                  this->address_str_, espbt::client_state_to_string(this->state()), param->open.status);
       }
-      if (param->open.status != ESP_GATT_OK && param->open.status != ESP_GATT_ALREADY_OPEN) {
+      if (open_failed) {
         this->log_gattc_warning_("Connection open", param->open.status);
         // Connection was never established so CLOSE_EVT may not follow
         this->set_idle_();
         break;
       }
+      // An open on a link that is already up sends no CONNECT_EVT, so take the id here.
+      this->conn_id_ = param->open.conn_id;
       if (this->want_disconnect_) {
         // Disconnect was requested after connecting started,
         // but before the connection was established. Now that we have